2.1. Guidelines and the solution of typical problems.
A population is a set of people living in a certain area, which is constantly changing due to births and deaths, as well as migration.
since 1994, in accordance with international standards, the unit of observation and the unit of account are the household and the person.
Households are people living together and running a common household (not necessarily relatives); it can also consist of one person. Three categories of households are counted in population censuses: private households, households of the homeless, and collective households.
When taking into account the population of individual settlements on the date, a distinction is made between the permanent and the actual population.
The permanent population includes persons permanently residing in a given settlement, regardless of their location at the time of the census (registration). A group of temporarily absent is singled out separately.
The actual population includes persons actually located in this settlement at the time of registration, regardless of whether they are temporarily or permanently present here. A group of temporarily present is singled out separately.
PN \u003d NN + VO - VP and
NN \u003d PN - VO + VP, where
PN - the number of permanent population on the date;
НН - the number of the present population on the date;
VO - the number of those temporarily absent on the date;
VP - the number of those temporarily present on the date.
If data are available at the beginning and at the end of the period, the average population is determined by the simple arithmetic mean formula:
Change is called natural movement. population through births and deaths. The natural movement also keeps records of marriages and divorces. Calculation of indicators of natural movement is carried out monthly, on an accrual basis from the beginning of the year and for the year.
There is a system of absolute and a system of relative indicators of the natural movement of the population.
The system of absolute indicators includes: the number of births for the period (N), the number of deaths for the period (M), the natural increase (+) or decline (-) of the population for the period - this is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths (N - M), and See also the number of marriages (BW) and the number of divorces (D). They are expressed either by a specific number (100 marriages) or by the number of people in the population (people, thousands of people, millions of people).
Relative indicators of the natural movement of the population are indicators of the level of births, deaths, natural increase(waste), marriages and divorces. They are calculated per 1,000 people, that is, in per thousand (in 0/00), taking into account the average (average annual) population.
The system of relative indicators of the natural movement of the population includes:
1) Fertility rate:
2) Mortality rate:
3) Coefficient of natural increase (loss) (can be both positive and negative):
or K eats. natural \u003d K p - K cm
4) Marriage rate:
5) Divorce rate:
6) Vitality indicator (Pokrovsky indicator): 
This indicator can also be calculated in times (the result of division is not multiplied by 100%). It characterizes the ratio between the number of births and the number of deaths. If the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, their ratio can be calculated vice versa (also in times or percentages).
All considered coefficients are general indicators, since they are calculated per 1000 people of the total population.
For a more detailed description of the reproduction of the population, private (special) coefficients are calculated - per 1000 people of a certain group of the population (gender, age, professional, etc.)
1. Special birth rate, or fertility rate, or fertility rate (annual):
or , where
N- the number of births per year;
- the average annual number of women in fertile age from 15 to 49 years;
K r– total fertility rate;
d w– proportion of women aged 15–49 in the total population;
2. Special mortality rates.
Infant mortality rate - characterizes the mortality rate of children under 1 year old per 1000 people born. It must be taken into account that children under the age of 1 year born last year may also die this year.
, where
N 1
N0
In cases where there is no distribution of children who died under the age of one year by those born in the previous and current year, the infant mortality rate is calculated by the formula:
where
m- the total number of deaths per year of children under the age of 1 year.
The population is regulated not only by natural movement, but also due to mechanical movement (territorial movements), i.e., due to population migration. The main indicators of migration are: the number of arrivals (P) and the number of departures (C). The difference between P and B is called the balance of migration or the mechanical (migration) increase (decrease) in the population: 
A relative indicator is also determined: the coefficient of mechanical growth (population decline) in ppm (per 1,000 people) or in decimill (per 10,000 population).
.
The prospective total population is calculated on the basis of data on the natural and mechanical increase (or decrease) of the population for the analyzed period, based on the preservation of the process development trend for the forecasted period of time. Because ,
then 
, where
S H + t- prospective number,
S H is the population at the beginning of the forecast period,
t is the number of forecast years,
To general pr. – coefficient of total growth (loss) for the period preceding the forecast.
To determine the average prospective population, it is necessary to use in this formula the average annual population for the period preceding the forecast.
EXAMPLE 1.
The following data on the population of the city at the beginning of the year are available:
The actual population at the beginning of the year amounted to 500 thousand people.
The number of temporary residents at the beginning of the year amounted to 30 thousand people.
The number of temporarily absent at the beginning of the year amounted to 10 thousand people.
The proportion of women aged 15-49 in the total population was 22%.
During the year, the following changes in the number of resident population occurred: 9 thousand people were born, 7 thousand people died, 6 thousand people arrived for permanent residence, 4 thousand people left the resident population for other settlements.
Determine: 1) the number of permanent population at the beginning and at the end of the year; 2) growth of permanent population per year; 3) general fertility rates, mortality rates, natural increase (loss), vitality rate, mechanical gain (loss), coefficient of total growth (loss), fertility rate.
Solution:
Let us determine the number of resident population at the beginning of the year using the formula
PN \u003d NN + VO - VP, where
PN - the number of permanent population at the beginning of the year;
НН - the number of the present population at the beginning of the year;
VO - the number of temporarily absent at the beginning of the year;
VP - the number of temporarily present at the beginning of the year.
Mon = 500 + 10-30 = 480 thousand people resident population at the beginning of the year.
Let us determine the number of resident population at the end of the year, if we already know the number of resident population at the beginning of the year and the changes in the number of resident population during the year.
S k.g. = S n.g. + N - M + P - V
Mon = 480+9-7+6-4 = 484 thousand people resident population at the end of the year.
The growth of the resident population for the year amounted to:
∆S = 484-480=4 thousand people
To determine the coefficients, it is necessary to determine the average annual population.
The calculation of the average annual population is made in the presence of data at the beginning and end of the period - according to the simple arithmetic formula:
Let's calculate the required coefficients:
Fertility rate: 
where N is the number of births per year;
Death rate: 
, where M is the number of deaths per year;
Coefficient of natural increase (loss):
Vitality factor:
Mechanical gain (loss) coefficient: 
where P is the number of arrivals, B is the number of departures:
Overall growth (loss) coefficient:
The fertility rate in this case is calculated by the formula:
Where - the proportion of women aged 15 - 49 years in the total population
(in the form of a coefficient).
Thus, the number of resident population at the end of the year, compared with the beginning of the year, increased by 4 thousand people due to the excess of the number of births over the number of deaths, as well as due to an increase in the number of arrivals for permanent residence, i.e. due to the positive balance of migration. The vitality factor of the population was 1.3 times.
EXAMPLE 2.
In the city in 2014, 41,217 children were born, and in 2015, 42,003 children were born. In the current 2015, 613 children under the age of 1 year died, including 294 children born in the previous year.
Determine the infant mortality rate.
Solution:
To calculate the coefficient, we apply the main formula, since the number of deceased children under the age of 1 year is known both in the current year and in the previous year.
, where
- the number of deaths up to a year in the current year out of those born in the same year;
- the number of deaths before the year in the current year of those born in the previous year;
N 1- the number of births in the current year;
N0 is the number of births in the previous year.
Let's determine the number of children born in the current year 2015 and those who died in the same year under the age of 1 year:
613 - 294 = 319 people
Thus, out of every thousand born in the current 2015, 15 children died under the age of one year (did not live to the specified age).
2.2. Tasks for self-control
1. The population of the region as of January 1, 2013 was 4836 thousand people, as of April 1 - 4800 thousand people, as of July 1 - 4905 thousand people, as of October 1 - 4890 thousand people, as of January 1 2014 - 4805 thousand people.
Determine the average annual population.
2. The following data on the population of the city (thousand people) are available:
Resident population at the beginning of the year 45
Number of temporarily present at the beginning of the year 30
Number of temporarily absent at the beginning of the year 18
Born in a year to a resident population of 10
Died in a year of resident population 7
Arrived at permanent residence 6
Left for permanent residence in other settlements 4
The number of women aged 15-49 years averaged 195
Determine: 1) the actual population at the beginning of the year; 2) the number of resident population at the end of the year; 3) general birth rates, death rates, natural increase (loss), vitality index, general coefficient of mechanical growth (loss), special birth rate (fertility or fecundity rate).
3. The following data on the population of the city (thousand people) are available:
Current population at the beginning of the year 540
Number of temporarily present at the beginning of the year 20
Number of temporarily absent at the beginning of the year 35
Average number of women aged 15-49 205
During the year, there were changes in the number of the permanent population of the city: 11 thousand people were born, 9 thousand people died, 8 thousand people arrived for permanent residence, 5 thousand people left the permanent population for other settlements for permanent residence .
Determine: 1) the number of permanent population at the beginning of the year and at the end of the year; 2) absolute growth(loss) of resident population per year; 3) general fertility rates, mortality rates, natural increase (loss), vitality index, coefficient of mechanical increase (loss) of the population, coefficient of general growth (loss) of the population in several ways, fertility rate.
4. The movement of the population in the region for 2014 is characterized by the following data: 22.1 thousand people were born, 19.8 thousand people died, 12.0 thousand people arrived, 8.6 thousand people left. During the year, 11.7 thousand marriages were concluded, 9.1 thousand marriages were annulled. The proportion of women of childbearing age in the total population of the region was 27.4%.
Determine all general and special coefficients of natural and mechanical movement of the population, if the population of the region on 01.01. 2014 was 2 million people.
5. The following data are available for the year for the region:
Population at the beginning of the year (thousand people) 1420
Population at the end of the year (thousand people) 1473
Coefficient of natural population growth, ‰ 2.90
Vitality coefficient (times) 1.26
The number of children who died under the age of 1 year, pers. 395
Share of women aged 15-49 in the total population, %
At the beginning of the year 31
At the end of the year 33
Describe the natural and migration (mechanical) movement of the population of the region in a given year using absolute and relative indicators known to you.
6. The population of the city at the beginning of the year was 203.0 thousand people, at the end of the year: 204.8 thousand people. The natural growth rate of the city's population was 6.7 ‰.
Determine the balance of migration and the coefficient of mechanical growth (loss) of the city's population for the year.
7. In one of the districts, the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the total number of women was 46.2%, and the proportion of women in the total population was 53.3%. The special birth rate (fertility rate) was 33.6‰.
Determine the total fertility rate for this area.
8. The following data are available for the region:
Among those born, the proportion of girls was 0.49 (49%).
Determine: total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate and net reproduction rate.
9. The following data are available for the city: in 2012, 12,670 children were born; in 2013, 12,230 children were born. In 2013, 262 children under the age of 1 year died, of which 120 children were born in 2012.
Determine the child (infant) mortality rate.
10. The following data are available on the age-specific mortality of the population in two districts of the region (for the population aged 25 years and older):
Determine: 1) actual mortality rates (average) in each of the districts; 2) standardized mortality rates (mean) in each of the districts. Compare your results. Draw your own conclusions.
11. As of September 1, 2009, the number of children aged 10 to 12 in the region was: ten-year-old children - 14,000 people, eleven-year-old children - 13,600 people, twelve-year-old children - 15,000 people.
At the same time, the following coefficients are known: the survival rate for children at the age of 10 is 0.9994; = 0.9972, at age 15 = 0.9948.
Determine the possible contingent of students in grades 9, 10 and 11 on September 1, 2013.
12. According to current accounting As of January 1, 2014, the resident population of the district was 120,000 people. During 2014, 1009 people were born, 800 people died, the mechanical increase in the population (balance of migration) amounted to 120 people.
Determine: 1) the number of permanent population as of January 1, 2015; 2) general rates of birth rate, mortality, natural and mechanical increase (loss), coefficient of general increase (loss) of the population; 3) the probable (prospective) population of the district as of January 1, 2018, based on the indicators of natural and mechanical increase (decrease) of the population established for 2014.
TASK 1
The movement of the population of the region for the year is characterized by the following data, thousand people:
Population at the beginning of the year ………4500
including women aged 15–49 years ……1200
Population at the end of the year…………..4800
including women aged 15–49……1800
During a year:
Born …………………………………………..75
Died……………………………………………..84
Died children under the age of one year ………………..0.68.
Define:
1) the average annual population of the region and the average annual number of women aged 15–49
2) population reproduction rates: a) birth rate; b) mortality; c) natural increase; d) fertility; e) infant mortality; f) Pokrovsky's index; g) population turnover rate; h) population reproduction rate.
SOLUTION
The average annual number is defined as the arithmetic mean of the number at the beginning and end of the year:
population–
people
women aged 15–49
people
a) the birth rate is determined by the ratio of the number of births to the average annual population:
%about
b) the mortality rate is determined by the ratio of the number of deaths to the average annual number:
%about
c) the rate of natural increase is defined as the difference between the birth rate and the death rate:
To natural growth = K p - K cm\u003d 16.13 - 18.07 \u003d - 1.94% o.
d) the fertility rate is defined as the ratio of births to the average annual number of women aged 15–49 years
%about
e) the infant mortality rate is defined as the ratio of the number of deaths of children under the age of one year to the number of births:
%about
f) vitality coefficient (Pokrovsky index)
%about
G) population turnover ratio - the number of births and deaths per 1000 people of the population on average per year:
%about
h) population reproduction efficiency coefficient
%about
TASK 2
The following data are available for the Russian Federation, thousand people:
Average annual population ……..18500
Total employed in the economy …………………….7400
The number of unemployed…………………….5600
Arrived……………………………………….17.5
Dropped out…………………………………………11.6
Define:
Godin A.M. Statistics. - M.: Dashkov and Co., 2010.
General Theory of Statistics / Ed. I.N. Eliseeva. –M.: Finance and statistics, 2010.
Social statistics / Ed. I.I. Eliseeva. M, 2009.
Tarnovskaya L.I. Statistics. – M.: Academy, 2010.
Theory of Statistics / Ed. R.A. Shmoilova.–M.: Finance and statistics, 2009.
this page is under construction
Statistical indicators of fertility
Birth rate indicators
The simplest conventional periodic characteristic of fertility, which requires only data on the age structure of the population, is the coefficient (or index) of children, i.e. the ratio of the number of children aged 0-14 years to the number of women of reproductive (15-49 years) age. The birth rate can be used to characterize fertility when data on the number of births are either not available or unreliable. The fertility rate is calculated using the following formula:
C/WR - fertility rate; Сh 0-4 - the number of children aged 0-4 years; W 15-49 - number of women of reproductive age
This indicator can be used for a primary estimate of the birth rate, especially in countries with poorly established vital records, but with fairly accurate census data. It is also useful for making initial comparisons of fertility rates across countries: the fertility rate is high where fertility is high and low in countries where fertility is low. The disadvantage of the fertility rate is that it is extremely sensitive to fluctuations in infant and child mortality and to underestimation of the child population. Therefore, its use in countries with high infant and child mortality and unreliable statistics may lead to incorrect estimates and conclusions.
The simplest indicator is total fertility rate. The total fertility rate is calculated as the ratio of the absolute number of births to average population population over a period, usually a year. This ratio is multiplied by 1000 for clarity, i.e. the total fertility rate is measured in ppm (‰):
CBR - total fertility rate B - absolute number of births per year P - average population T - period length
Special birth rate is the ratio of the number of live births (usually per calendar year) to the average (average annual) number of women aged 15 to 50, usually expressed in ppm (‰):
F 15-49 - special fertility rate N - number of children aged 0-4 years W 15-49 - average annual number of women aged 15-49 years
The special birth rate has some advantages and, of course, disadvantages compared to the general birth rate. The advantages are that this coefficient, of course, does not depend on the sex structure of the population and, to a lesser extent than the general coefficient, depends on the age structure. The proportion of women aged 15-49 in the total population fluctuates different countries and territories from 20 to 30%. The disadvantage of the special coefficient is the same: the dependence of the value on the characteristics of the age structure within the female reproductive contingent (in the age range from 15 to 50 years), and not on the entire population. Although this dependence is four times smaller than the general coefficient, its distorting influence is enough to make the special birth rate also of little use in demographic analysis. Experts use this indicator very rarely.
Age-specific fertility rates
The next step forward on the way to best performance fertility is the calculation of age-specific fertility rates. The age coefficient is the ratio of the annual number of births to mothers of age "x" to the number of all women of this age:
F x - age-specific fertility rate N x - number of women born to women aged "x" W x - number of women aged "x"
If we ignore multiple births (which make up a small percentage of the total number of births), then we can consider the birth rate as the proportion of women who gave birth in a given year to the total number of women of the corresponding age.
Age coefficients are calculated for one-year and five-year age groups. The most detailed - one-year age coefficients provide the best opportunities for analyzing the state and dynamics of fertility. However, they are subject to the deformation of data on the age structure of the female reproductive contingent under the influence of age accumulation. Therefore, when very high accuracy is not required, researchers make do with five-year age coefficients, which, although slightly affected by fluctuations in the age structure within five-year age groups, still provide quite good opportunities for fertility analysis.
Marriage and illegitimate births
Marital status is the most important factor in the birth rate. Consequently, the special and age coefficients of marital and extramarital fertility give a better idea of the state and dynamics of fertility than ordinary coefficients that are not differentiated by the marital status of women.
Special Marriage Fertility Rate:
M F x - special marriage fertility rate m N - number of births married women m W 15-49 - total number of married women aged 15-49
Marriage birth rates are mainly calculated from sample surveys only.
total fertility rate
The total fertility rate is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates and multiplying them by the length of each age interval in whole years (for one-year rates, the multiplier is 1, for five-year rates, 5, etc.). The sum is eventually divided by 1000, i.e. The indicator is expressed per woman on average:
Ftotal - total fertility rate n - length of the age interval (with the same length of the interval, it can be taken out of the sign of the sum, i.e. first add the coefficients, and then multiply the sum of the coefficients by the length of the age interval once. If the intervals are different in length (rarely, but it happens), then it is necessary to multiply each coefficient separately by the length of the age interval corresponding to it) F x - age coefficients
The total fertility rate is one of the summary, final indicators. The total fertility rate shows how many children, on average, one woman gives birth to in her entire life from 15 to 50 years, provided that throughout the reproductive period of the life of a given generation, age-specific fertility rates in each age group remain unchanged at the level of the billing period.
Total Fertility Rate Scale
(according to V.A. Borisov and B.Ts. Urlanis)
63% of women aged 15-49 worldwide who are married or in union use contraception
The decline in the birth rate and its stabilization at a low level are associated with a decrease in the number of desired children and an increase in the prevalence of contraception.
At the 2005 World Summit, the world's governments committed themselves to "achieving universal access to reproductive health by 2015, as decided by the International Conference on Population and Development (A/RES/60/1)".
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the UN Secretariat in spring 2008 presented a compilation of data on key characteristics of reproductive health, including two indicators for achieving the Millennium Goals: contraceptive prevalence (of all methods and means), indicator 5.3 and unmet need for family planning, indicator 5.6 .
These data indicate that the goal of universal access to reproductive health is far from being achieved, at least in terms of unmet need for family planning. In at least 43 countries around the world, 20% of women of reproductive age who are married or in a marriage union are not fully provided with contraceptives. However, the prevalence of contraceptive use continues to rise. Globally, 63% of married or cohabiting women aged 15-49 (716 million) use some form of contraception (Figure 12). In developed countries, this share is 67.4%, while in developing countries it is only slightly less - 62.4%. At the same time, the share of those using modern contraceptives practically does not differ, amounting to 56% in both groups of countries.
Figure 12. Prevalence of contraceptive use by main regions of the world, % of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union
*including Caribbean countries
The source of information for the presented data was sample surveys of women of reproductive age in samples representative of each country. Estimates for the world as a whole and large regions are weighted averages, calculated from national data, taking into account the number of women aged 15-49 years who are married or in a union, as of 2007. This used previously reported UN data on the proportion of women who are married or in a marriage union (World Marriage Data 2006), as well as on the number of women by age group (World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision).
Data on the prevalence of contraceptive use, relating to years not earlier than 1985, are available for 170 countries and territories of the world, in which in 2007 lived 99.7% of all women of reproductive age in the world who are married or in a marriage union. Most of the information refers to recent years - to 2000 and beyond - for 109 countries and territories, in which 85.8% of all women of reproductive age who are married or in a marriage union are concentrated. Among the few countries for which data are not available, only Ireland, Panama and Croatia have more than 100,000 women of reproductive age who are married or in union.
Data on unmet demand for contraceptives, which are available for the period since 1985, are much worse for only 97 countries and territories of the world. Only 59.5% of women of reproductive age who are married or in a union live in these countries. There is no information needed to estimate this indicator for many developed countries (for a number of European countries, as well as for Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand and the USA), countries of Western Asia, the Caribbean, South America, Oceania, and China.
The main exceptions remain sub-Saharan Africa, Micronesia, Polynesia and Melanesia, where contraceptive prevalence is still below 30%.
In sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, contraceptive prevalence is only 22% of women of reproductive age who are married or in union. About half of the 47 countries in the region for which relevant data are available are below 20%, mostly in West Africa and the Horn of Africa. In the rest of the developing world, contraceptive prevalence is high. It is 60% in North Africa (except Sudan), 68% on average in Asia, 71% in Latin America and the Caribbean. In Asia as a whole, the prevalence of contraceptive use is comparable to its prevalence in Europe. Only in 6 out of 47 Asian states and territories it does not reach 30% (in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Oman, UAE, Yemen and Timor Leste). As already noted, in the most populous country in the world, China, the prevalence of contraception is the highest not only in Asia, but also in the whole world - 90%.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, contraceptive prevalence is comparable to that in North America. In this large region, there is no country in which contraceptive prevalence is below 30%, and only 7 out of 32 countries for which data are available range from 30% to 50% (mostly countries Caribbean: Dominican Republic, Haiti, Guatemala, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago).
Although the achieved prevalence of contraceptive use is quite high in most regions of the world, trends in its change differ depending on the level of development of countries and regions. In developed countries, it has been high for several decades and has changed little since 1997. And in developing countries, the prevalence of contraceptive use has increased significantly in the last decade. In 44% of developing countries for which data are available, it has increased by more than 1 percentage point since 1997, and in 8% of developing countries the average annual increase has been at least 2 percentage points. However, in 32% of developing countries, the increase in the value of the indicator did not reach half a percentage point. This large group of countries includes some countries with low (less than 20%) contraceptive prevalence: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Eritrea, Guinea, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Sudan.
The ratio of contraceptives used also differs. Overall, 9 out of 10 people who use contraception use modern methods: oral contraception (birth control pills), intrauterine devices (IUDs), sterilization (female and male), male condoms, barrier vaginal contraception, special injections and implants. Short-acting and reversible methods are used more often in developed countries, while long-term methods and highly effective clinical methods of contraception are used more often in developing countries (Fig. 13).
Figure 13. Prevalence of certain types of contraception by major regions of the world, % of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union
Among developed countries as a whole, the prevalence of oral contraception (16%) and male condoms (14%) is the highest. These two methods are used by almost half of the people who use contraception in developed countries, and only two out of ten resort to female sterilization or the use of intrauterine devices (IUDs). In contrast, female sterilization (21%) and IUD use (16%) are more common in developing countries, being used by 60% of people who use contraception.
Globally, the most common method of contraception is female sterilization, which is used by 20% of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union. This method is especially widespread in Latin America and the Caribbean: it is most often used in Brazil, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico (over 40%), in Colombia, El Salvador and Mexico (from 30 to 39%). Female sterilization is also widespread in Canada, China and India. However, in countries such as Argentina and Poland, sterilization as a means of contraception is illegal.
The second most common method of contraception in the world is intrauterine devices (IUDs), which are used by 16% of women of reproductive age who are married or in a marriage union. IUDs are especially widely used in Asia. The highest prevalence of their use - over 40% - in China, North Korea, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In Vietnam, Israel, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Turkmenistan, it ranges from 30 to 39%.
The use of birth control pills is the third most common method of contraception in the world. It is used by 9% of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union. This method of contraception has the widest geographical distribution. Oral contraception is relatively high (20-55%) in 4 countries in Africa, 4 countries in Asia, 13 countries in Europe, 11 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 3 countries in Oceania. Countries with the highest prevalence of oral contraception (over 40%) include Algeria, Belgium, France, Germany, Morocco, the Netherlands, Réunion and Zimbabwe.
In terms of the proportion of oral contraceptive users of all contraceptive users, there are more countries in the world where at least 30% of people using a particular method of contraception use contraceptive pills than those in which such a proportion of users contraception accounts for female sterilization and IUDs combined. Thus, in many countries, the use of contraceptive pills is the most popular method of contraception, although worldwide its prevalence is lower than female sterilization and the use of IUDs.
The use of male condoms is the fourth most common method of contraception in the world, used by 6% of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union. This method is most widely used in Japan (41%). Most countries with high level The prevalence of this method of contraception is located in Europe, although in some countries of Asia and Latin America it is also widespread, ranging from 20% to 35% in Argentina, Great Britain, Greece, Grenada, Hong Kong, Denmark, Spain, Singapore, Slovakia, Finland, Uruguay and in Jamaica.
Other modern methods of contraception are also popular in some areas. For example, in East and South Africa, injections and implants are the most popular, with 40% of contraceptive users using them.
Traditional methods (calendar method, coitus interruptus, prolonged breast-feeding etc.), which are usually not recommended due to their low effectiveness, are still used in the countries of Central and West Africa, as well as Eastern Europe, in which, respectively, 76%, 37% and 35% of people using contraception, use the traditional methods. For example, in Albania, 89% of contraceptive users use coitus interruptus.
If we present data on the prevalence of contraceptive use in countries ranked by the value of the total fertility rate, we can see many deviations from the general pattern: the lower the birth rate, the more common contraception (Fig. 14). Especially significant are the deviations from the trend in the share of users modern means contraception. Thus, in a number of Eastern European countries with an extremely low birth rate (1.2 children per woman), it is two to three times lower than in many developing countries with a total fertility rate of 3 to 4 children per woman and higher. A certain lag behind many other countries in the world in terms of the prevalence of contraception, especially modern, is also characteristic of Russia (65.3% of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a marriage union use contraception, including 47.1% - modern) .
Figure 14. Distribution of countries in the world by total fertility rate and proportion of women aged 15-49 who are married or in a union using contraception
(countries are ranked in ascending order of total fertility rate)Unmet demand for family planning varies from 1% in Albania to 51% in Yemen. In Africa, nearly half of the 42 countries for which data are available have unmet demand between 20% and 30%, and in a quarter of countries it is over 30%. In contrast, in Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, unsatisfied demand does not exceed 20%. In general, unmet demand for family planning is low in countries where contraceptive prevalence is already high, exceeding 60% of women aged 15-49 who are married or in union.
Sources:
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
World Fertility Patterns 2007. - http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldfertility2007/worldfertility2007.htm
World Contraceptive Use 2007. - http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/contraceptive2007/contraceptive2007.htm4 - Proportion of women of reproductive age who are married or in a marriage union who did not use contraception at the time of the survey, but indicated that they did not want to have any more children or would like to postpone the birth of the next child.
1) Fertility rate or fertility rate (annual):
Or where
N- the number of births per year;
- the average annual number of women in fertile age from 15 to 49 years;
K r– total fertility rate;
d w– proportion of women aged 15–49 in the total population;
2) Age-specific fertility rate (annual) - determines the average number of children born per year per 1000 women of a particular age:
, whereNumber of children born to women aged x to (x+1) years;
Average annual number of women aged x years to (x+1) years.
Population statistics also studies special indicators that characterize the features of the population reproduction regime and its internal structure.
1. Total fertility rate - shows how many children each woman can give birth to on average for the entire reproductive period of her life from 15 to 49 years. It is calculated by summing the age-specific fertility rates for all ages of the childbearing period:
(for one woman).In the case where age-specific fertility rates are calculated for five-year age groups, each fertility rate must be multiplied by 5 before summing, as this is the average for five ages.
2. Gross - the reproduction rate or gross reproduction rate - is the average number of girls that one woman will give birth before the end of childbearing age:
, whered g- the proportion of girls among those born.
3. Net - the reproduction rate or the net reproduction rate - shows the birth rate of girls, taking into account their mortality per woman.
, where- the number of living women in the age group from x to (x + 1) years according to the mortality tables, i.e. per 10,000 or 100,000 people.
Net - the reproduction rate - is the average number of girls born to one woman during the fertile period and survived to the age at which the woman was at the birth of each of these girls. It characterizes the degree of reproduction of the female population, provided that its regime remains unchanged for a long time. Therefore, at R 0 =1, a complete replacement of a generation (simple reproduction) is ensured, at R 0<1 отсутствует полная замена поколения, при R 0 >1 extended generation replacement is provided.
.
number of economically active population;
coefficient of economically active population;
population employment rate;
unemployment rate,
migration gain (net migration),
volume of migration (gross migration),
arrival rate,
dropout rate,
general coefficient of migration intensity,
intensity factor of migration turnover,
migration efficiency ratio
SOLUTION
The economically active population (labor force) is the part of the population that provides the supply of labor force for the production of goods and services. The economically active population includes the employed and the unemployed.
people
The coefficient of economic activity of the population is determined by the ratio of the economically active population to the total population:
%about
The employment rate of the population is determined by the ratio of the employed population to the economically active population:
%about
The unemployment rate is determined by the ratio of the number of unemployed to the number of economically active population:
%about
Migration is the movement of people (migrants) across the borders of certain territories with a change of residence forever or for a more or less long time.
Distinguish migration:
internal - the movement of the population within the country, external - the movement of the population from one country to another. Migration intensity indicators include:
1) migration gain (net migration)
D instant \u003d P - V = 17,5 – 11,6 = 5,9 %about
2) volume of migration (gross migration)
Q moment \u003d P + V =17,5 + 11,6 = 29,1
%about.
3) arrival rate
%about
4) dropout rate
%about
5) general coefficient of migration intensity
6) coefficient of intensity of migration turnover
%about
7) migration efficiency ratio
%about
TASK 3
The following data are available on the distribution of the population of Russia by average per capita money income:
|
Average per capita income per month, rub. |
Population |
Interval midpoint x' |
x'*f |
Cumulative frequency S |
|
Up to 100 |
||||
|
100 – 200 |
21,5 |
3225 |
23,3 |
|
|
200 – 300 |
24,3 |
6075 |
47,6 |
|
|
300– 400 |
25,4 |
8890 |
||
|
400 – 500 |
22,5 |
10125 |
95,5 |
|
|
500 – 600 |
18,2 |
10010 |
113,7 |
|
|
600 – 700 |
11,4 |
7410 |
125,1 |
|
|
700 – 800 |
6150 |
133,3 |
||
|
800 – 900 |
5525 |
139,8 |
||
|
900 – 1000 |
4275 |
144,3 |
||
|
1000 – 1100 |
1050 |
3675 |
147,8 |
|
|
1100 – 1200 |
1150 |
2530 |
||
|
1200 – 1300 |
1250 |
2000 |
151,6 |
|
|
1300 – 1400 |
1350 |
2295 |
153,3 |
|
|
over 1400 |
1450 |
2175 |
154,8 |
|
|
TOTAL |
154,8 |
74450 |
— |
Define:
1) Average per capita monthly income;
2) lower and upper deciles;
3) decile coefficient of income differentiation of the population.
SOLUTION
1. The average per capita monthly income is determined by the following formula:
Population income ratio
2. The lower and upper deciles are calculated using the median formula, only in this case, instead of the median interval, intervals are used in which there are options that cut off 10% of the number of frequencies at different ends of the distribution series.
The bottom decile (d 1) (lowest income) is determined by the formula:
rub.
To calculate the first (lower) decile, we find 1/10 of the number of frequencies:
=15,48
by the accumulated frequency, we determine the lower decile interval, substitute the values into the formula.
3. Top decile ( d9) (highest income) is determined by the formula:
To calculate the ninth (top) decile, we find 9/10 of the number of frequencies:
RUB 139.32
Based on the accumulated frequency, we determine the upper decile interval, substitute the values into the formula.
4. The decile coefficient of income differentiation of the population is determined by
5. Conclusion. In Russia, the maximum income for the 10% of the population with low incomes is 158.71 rubles, and the minimum income for the 10% of the population with high incomes was 1440.97 rubles, and the difference is 9.08 times.
TASK 4
The following data are available on the distribution of the total cash income of the region's population by 20% groups, %:
|
Index |
Base period |
Reporting period |
|
Total cash income: including for 20% population groups |
||
|
first |
17,3 |
30,1 |
|
second |
24,5 |
18,1 |
|
third |
17,3 |
12,8 |
|
fourth |
36,4 |
13,6 |
|
fifth |
25,4 |
For each year:
1 Determine the Gini income concentration coefficients;
2) build the Lorenz curve.
Solution
1. An auxiliary table is built:
|
Year |
Social group of the population |
Share of the population x i |
Share in total cash income, y i |
Estimated indicators |
||
|
cum y i(S) |
x i |
x i |
||||
|
b a h and With n s th |
0,173 |
0,173 |
0,0346 |
0,0346 |
||
|
0,245 |
0,418 |
0,049 |
0,0836 |
|||
|
0,173 |
0,591 |
0,0346 |
0,1182 |
|||
|
0,364 |
0,955 |
0,0728 |
0,191 |
|||
|
0,045 |
0,009 |
|||||
|
Total |
— |
0,6274 |
||||
|
about t h e t n s |
0,301 |
0,301 |
0,0602 |
0,0602 |
||
|
0,181 |
0,482 |
0,0362 |
0,0964 |
|||
|
0,128 |
0,61 |
0,0256 |
0,122 |
|||
|
0,136 |
0,746 |
0,0272 |
0,1492 |
|||
|
0,254 |
0,0508 |
|||||
|
Total |
— |
0,6278 |
||||
2. Using the final rows, we determine the Gini coefficients for the base and reporting years using the following formulas:
for the base year:
for the reporting year:
3. Let's build the Lorenz curve for each year: (OX axis - population%, OY axis - income (S),%
|
Base year |
||||||
|
|
Reporting year |
|||||
Conclusion: The degree of concentration of incomes of the population of the district in the base period is -(-0.0548), in the reporting period it is (-0.0556), thus, in the reporting year, the concentration of incomes of the population is closer to the unreal distribution than in the base period. This can be seen from the Lorentz curve when comparing the areas bounded by the diagonal and the line of the Lorentz curve.
TASK 5
Based on the sample survey of household budgets, calculate the coefficients of elasticity of food consumption
|
Index |
Year |
|
|
basic |
reporting |
|
|
bakery products |
||
|
milk and dairy products |
||
|
2260 |
2480 |
|
1. We build an auxiliary table:
|
Index |
Year |
Absolute growth |
Growth rate, % |
Growth rate, % |
|
|
basic |
reporting |
||||
|
Apr |
Tr |
Tpr |
|||
|
1. Average consumption per household member per year: |
|||||
|
bakery products |
112,23 |
12,23 |
|||
|
milk and dairy products |
109,62 |
9,62 |
|||
|
2. Average per capita income per household for the year in comparable prices, rub. |
2260 |
2480 |
109,73 |
9,73 |
|
2. Using tabular data, we calculate the coefficient of elasticity of consumption of products from income according to the formula:
for bakery products
for milk and dairy products
where Apr (y) is the change in the level of consumption in the reporting period compared to the baseline, i.e. (absolute growth);
Apr (x) - change in average per capita income for a given period (absolute growth);
x o
— average per capita income in the base period;
y about is the level of consumption in the base period.
General coefficient of elasticity
Conclusion. The coefficient of elasticity of bread products is positive and greater than one, therefore, the consumption of these products is growing faster than income. The coefficient of elasticity of dairy products is also positive, but less than one, therefore, consumption increases more slowly than income. The coefficient of elasticity of consumption of products from income is positive, slightly higher than one, which indicates that consumption for two products is growing more slowly than the income of the population as a whole.
