As a result of the market reforms and transformational transformations carried out in recent years, there have been dramatic changes in the living conditions of the Russian population, which significantly affected the psychological and physical behavior of people, including the birth rate.

Thus, a demographic problem arose in Russia, which left a certain imprint on the standard of living of the population, which has been significantly transformed in recent years.

The main factors for the decline are:

The rapid decline in the income level of a certain part of the population;

A significant proportion of the poor with a rather vague definition of the level of poverty;

Substantial levels of unemployment coupled with unpaid wages;

Destruction of the social sphere.

All of these facts affected the well-being of the population. Problems in Russia were marked by a natural decrease, followed by a halt in population growth, which led to its decline. Thus, the formation of an inefficient model of internal and external migration is traced.

In Russia, it was the result of the use of "shock therapy", which led to a drop in incomes of citizens, and hopes for their restoration in the coming decades are small. Thus, based on historical data, only in 2002 did the population reach the 1997 level.

The main factor in the two-fold decline in the standard of living of Russian citizens in comparison with 1991. is inadequate pay. Due to its significant decline, wage stopped working:

Reproductive (is not a guarantee of even the simplest reproduction of the labor force of a citizen);

Economic (does not stimulate the increase in productivity and quality of labor);

Social.

The demographic problem in Russia indicates a very low consumer level of the population. Statistics confirm this. Thus, the average cost of food is about half of the total expenses of Russian families. Moreover, in other countries this figure does not exceed 30%. It should be noted that all this happens in the presence of huge resources.

The demographic problem in Russia reflects the one that began in 1992. In that year, the mortality and birth curves intersected, and so far it is not possible to detect signs of significant improvements.

Of course, a similar situation in other states leaves its mark on Russian demographic problems. For example, in many countries, there is a significant decline in fertility, which in the near future may lead to a slowdown in population growth. However, the demographic problem in the world is determined not only by a decrease in population growth, but also by such factors as the climatic features of the regions, the state of their external environment, social and economic conditions of life.

Demographic problems in the world are part of the so-called global problems. Global problems are problems that affect the whole world and require the efforts of all mankind to solve. These problems arose in the second half of the 20th century, and in the 21st century they continue to worsen. Their feature is a stable relationship with each other.

The demographic problem itself is divided into two parts:

• The problem of a sharp increase in population in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
• The problem of shrinking and aging populations in countries Western Europe, Japan and Russia.

The problem of population growth in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Demographic problems in the world became especially relevant in the second half of the 20th century. At this time, significant changes took place in the social sphere of society:

• First, medicine has advanced widely, thanks to the use of new drugs and new medical equipment. As a result, it was possible to cope with epidemics of diseases that previously destroyed hundreds of thousands of people, and reduce mortality from some other dangerous diseases.
• Secondly, since the middle of the 20th century, mankind has not waged global wars that could massively reduce the population.

As a result, mortality rates worldwide have dropped dramatically. The world population at the beginning of the 21st century reached 7 billion people. Of these, about 6 billion live in Third World countries - Asia, Africa and Latin America. It was in these countries that a process that is commonly called a population explosion took place.

The main causes of the population explosion in Third World countries:

• Still high birth rates, along with low mortality.
• The important role of traditional religious and national values ​​that prohibit abortions and the use of contraceptives.
• In some countries Central Africa, the influence of the rudiments of pagan culture. And as a result - a low level of morality and promiscuity.

In the 1950s and 60s, the consequences of the population explosion inspired optimistic hopes among the population. However, later it became obvious that a sharp increase in the birth rate leads to a number of problems:

• The problem of the working population. In a number of countries, the number of children under 16 is equal to, and in some even exceeds, the number of adults.
• The problem of lack of territories that meet the necessary conditions for the life and development of citizens.
• The problem of food shortage.
• The problem of shortage of raw materials.

Thus, the demographic problem is closely related to a number of other global problems.

At the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries, in a number of Third World countries, a policy began to be pursued at the state level, stimulating a decrease in the birth rate of the population. This concerns, first of all, China and India, where the mottos from the series: “One family - one child” have become widespread. Families with one or two children began to receive benefits from the government. This gave certain results, and the birth rate was somewhat reduced. But population growth in these countries is still very high.

Features of the demographic situation in developed countries

Demographic problems in the world have greatly affected the developed countries of the West. These countries have seen a clear trend towards aging and shrinking populations over the past fifty years.

That is, on the one hand, the number of older people and life expectancy are increasing. Reasons: improving the level of medical and social services for citizens.

On the other hand, the birth rate is sharply declining, which means that the percentage of the young population is declining.

The developed countries of the world in terms of the demographic situation can be divided into several groups:

• Countries where there is population growth due to their own birth rate. That is, the birth rate in the country exceeds the death rate. These are Slovakia, Ireland, France, England.
• Countries that still maintain population growth due to births, but growth due to migration is higher: Spain, Holland, Finland, Cyprus, USA, Canada, Italy, Greece, Germany.
• States where the population is declining due to the excess of deaths over births and due to the emigration of their population to other countries: Bulgaria, the Baltic countries, Poland.

What are the reasons for the decline in the birth rate in the West? This is, first of all:

• Consequences of the sexual revolution in the 1960s and 70s, when various methods contraception.
• Interest in career growth in the service field, which usually significantly increases the time threshold for marriage and the appearance of children in Western countries.
• family crisis in modern society: Increasing divorce rates and unregistered cohabitation.
• Increasing the number of same-sex marriages.
• Modern Western culture of "comfort" itself. It does not encourage parents to spend additional efforts on the upbringing and material support of several children.

Further continuation of the process of reducing the birth rate in Western countries threatens them with the extinction of their own population and its replacement by people from Asia and Africa. The beginning of this process can be seen in Europe right now, analyzing the latest developments with immigrants from the Third World.

The current demographic situation in Russia

Demographic problems in the world have also affected Russia. Our country can be attributed to the European countries of the second group. That is, we have a small population growth, but it is carried out with the help of not only the birth rate, but also immigration from the CIS countries. In 2016, the death rate in Russia exceeds the birth rate by about 70 thousand per year. Migrates to the country, for the same time period about 200 thousand.

Causes of the demographic problem in Russia:

• Consequences of the economic and social decline of the 1990s. The low standard of living that many families use to justify not wanting to have children. However, it should be taken into account that the high standard of living in the countries of Western Europe, in practice, leads, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in this region.
• The absence in society, as a result of many years of communist rule, of firm religious foundations, as in a number of Catholic and Muslim countries abroad.
• Wrong policy of the state, as a result of which families with many children received minimal benefits in the country for many years.
• Lack of propaganda at the state level against abortion. Russia in terms of the number of abortions is one of the first places in the world, along with Vietnam, Cuba and Ukraine.

Government policy aimed in recent years at providing financial support to families who decide to have a second and third child has yielded results.

The improvement of medical care also played a certain role. The birth rate in the country has increased significantly, while the death rate has slightly decreased.

However, it is necessary to create in Russia long-term and large-scale programs aimed at stimulating the birth rate, supporting large families, single mothers, and reducing the number of abortions. State activities aimed at raising the moral level of the population can also play a large role.

Department of International Economic Relations

Analytical reference on the discipline

“International Economic Relations”

On the topic:

"Global problems and their impact on the development of the world economy"

Work completed:

3rd year student of FPEC

Baizhanova Camilla

Scientific adviser:

Kozlova O.A.

Moscow 2017

Introduction ................................................ ................................................. ...... 3

The history of the emergence of global problems……………………..... 4

Types of global problems ............................................................... ......................... 5

Impact of global issues on world economy........................ 6

Conclusion…………………………………………………………....11

List of references .............................................................................. ....... 12

Introduction

The global problems of modernity should be understood as a set of problems on the solution of which the further existence of civilization depends.

Global problems are generated by the uneven development of different areas of the life of modern mankind and the contradictions generated in the socio-economic, political, ideological, socio-natural and other relations of people. The essence of global problems lies in the fact that they, to one degree or another, affect the economy and life of the population of any country, and the solution of these problems depends on the efforts of the whole world.

The object of the study is the world's global problems.

The subject of the study is the impact of global problems on the development of the world economy.

The purpose of the work: characterization of the state, impact on the economy and solutions to global problems.

Work tasks:

1. Give brief description global problems.

2. Track their dynamics and types of problems, highlight the main ones.

3. Consider possible solutions to problems, the degree of their effectiveness.

When writing the work were used analytical methods research.

History of global problems

Global economic problems affect all spheres of life, affect, to one degree or another, all the states of the World without exception. The consequences to which crisis phenomena lead, both in the economy and in other spheres of human activity (demography, the problem of hunger, environmental, energy and raw material crises, political instability, etc.) can be truly catastrophic. Eliminating such problems is the task of each country peace.

They first appeared after the first half of the twentieth century, and this was mainly due to the growth of globalization in the world economy. The first mention of global problems dates back to 1960-1970. Only after that, the concept of “Globalistics” appeared in economic terminology - a separate branch of the direction in scientific research.

Given the growth rate of interdependence of countries and regions, it can be said that a local problem can turn into a global one if it is not eliminated in time.

Despite the huge number of global problems, they all have approximately similar characteristics:

1) Global problems are a threat to the interests of most countries.

2) They are a brake on the social and economic development of the countries of the world economy.

3) Require urgent elimination.

4) Most global problems are interconnected

5) Elimination requires the participation of most countries of the world economy.

The most basic is the question of the priority of global problems. The solution to this issue depends, as well as on the location of the problem, and on the scale of this very problem.

Types of global problems

To determine a strategy and a set of measures aimed at eliminating certain global problems, their classification is necessary. The international organization of classifications has divided all global problems into three types according to the method of solution, nature and cause of occurrence:

1. Socio-economic and political problems:

· Saving the world

· Creation of conditions conducive to favorable social. progress

Disarmament

Non-militarization of outer space

Development assistance to countries with low GDP

2. Problems related to the relationship of man, society and technology:

Effective use of the achievements of scientific and technical progress

· Population growth

Elimination of the negative impact of new technologies on humanity

Protection of the rights of citizens

3. Environmental issues:

Problems with raw materials

food problems

· Energy problems

Problems of the environmental crisis

· Protection of historical heritage

Impact of global problems on the world economy

demographic problem.

Economists have long studied the relationship between population growth and economic growth. In the course of research, scientists have developed 2 approaches to assessing the relationship between population and economy. development:

The first approach is related to the theory of Malthus, who believes that population growth is disproportionate to the growth of food supplies, from which the world population becomes poorer

· The modern approach provides us with a more comprehensive assessment and, in addition to the negative ones, also indicates to us the positive results of the demographic growth of the population.

But, regardless of the approach, it is obvious that in modern realities it is necessary to control the impact of growth on economic development.

Every year the world population increases by more than 90,000,000 people. Most (about 80,000,000 hours) are in developing countries. And the problem is not only in quantity: it is also a matter of development and welfare.

Consequently, most economists in leading countries believe that the real problem is not growth itself, but issues such as:

A) Underdevelopment: one obvious problem is the lack (low pace) of development, and development itself is a key objective. Mechanisms acquired as a result of economical. and social progress serve as regulators of population growth.

B) Excessive consumption of world resources: Less than twenty-five percent of the population in developed countries consumes about eighty percent of the world's resources.

As noted earlier, there is a pronounced imbalance in the food supply of many countries of the world. Many of the poorest countries are in dire need of the necessary food supplies, while in industrialized countries these same food supplies are in abundance.

Due to the lack of food, people's health is at risk, and, consequently, the quality of the workforce is deteriorating. This affects the rate of economic growth.

To overcome the crisis of food stocks, all countries of the world must jointly develop a strategy for the production, distribution and consumption of food stocks. With skillfully tuned production, with current resources, according to experts, more than 10,000,000,000 people can be provided with the necessary food resources.

Ecological problem.

Given the current level of human impact on environment, the environmental problem is one of the most significant and intractable. Natural resources the planet is not enough to meet all the ever-growing human needs.

The environmental problem is divided into two aspects:

Problems arising from natural phenomena

Problems arising from human interference

The level of human influence on nature is very high, and since human influence is usually negative, humanity follows a path that, sooner or later, will lead to destruction.

Among the main consequences of human pollution of the environment are the following: damage to human and animal health; areas contaminated by humans are unsuitable not only for farming, but also for living. Such interventions can disrupt nature's ability to cleanse itself and can lead to total destruction. The main ways to deplete the ecological potential include: the use of chemical. fertilizers on an excessive scale, depletion of forests, destruction of the ozone layer, pollution of the environment through the release of garbage in huge quantities.

There are several ways to reduce the environmental impact, such as:

· Combating environmental pollution (acute measures). The introduction of a strict system of fines and penalties from enterprises that exceed the permissible level of emissions harmful substances in production.

· Production of products that can be reused. Such measures will help reduce the use of natural resources.

· Introduction into production of new technologies that allow to produce a similar product with minimal impact on the environment (or its absence). The main problem of this method is the high level of costs, since in many cases it is impossible without the use of biotechnology.

The essence of the demographic problem consists in the extremely rapid and uneven growth of the world's population since the second half of the 20th century.

At the beginning of the agricultural revolution, 10,000 BC, there were 10 million people on our planet, and at the beginning new era-100 - 250 million

In 1830, the population of the Earth reached 1 billion, in 1930 -2 billion, i.e., it took 100 years to double the population. The population of the Earth reached 3 billion already in 1960, 4 billion lived on Earth in 1990, 2003 -6.1 billion.

According to UN experts, on July 17, 1999 at 8:45 GMT, the six billionth inhabitant of the Earth was born in Sarajevo.

Over the past millennium, the population of the Earth has increased 18 times. The first doubling took 600 years, the second 230, the third 100, and the last 38 years.

From 1975 to 1985, the population increased by 77 million annually, i.e. by an average of 1.8%, in developed countries - by 0.5%, in developing countries - by 2.1%, and in Africa - 3%. Such growth rates have never been seen before in the history of mankind. In 1999, more than half of earthlings were under 25 years old.

Acceleration of the growth rate of the world population in the second half of the 20th century. often call demographic explosion.

The population explosion was caused by the rise of the economy, the liberation of the third world countries, the improvement of medical care after the Second World War, the illiteracy of the population, especially women, and the lack of social security for the elderly in developing countries. Under these conditions, children (and their work) are the life support of parents. Young children provide physical assistance to mothers in their hard domestic work and fathers in agriculture. Due to the lack of social (pension) security, 2-3 adult sons must support elderly parents. It's hard for one to do it. And in order for 2-3 men to be born in a family, the spouses must have at least 4-6 children. High infant mortality in the absence of essential health care has also traditionally been a contributing factor to high birth rates.

Population growth among countries and regions is highly uneven. Less developed countries account for 95% of the world's population growth. So, for example, in Kenya, the birth rate (number of children born per 1000 population, divided by 1000 and multiplied by 100), rose to 5.8% and approached the biologically possible limit. At the same time, the birth rate in Germany, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland and a number of other countries is less than 1.2%.

Every second, the population increases by 3 people. In the second half of the 1990s, the growth was 80 million per year (1.4%).

"Population explosion" and uneven population growth leads to the exacerbation of a number of other problems:

increased pressure on the environment (“demographic pressure” factor);

ethnic issues;

the problem of refugees;

the problem of urbanization, etc.

Demographic pressure complicates the food and environmental situation. The development of a modern economy requires territorial and fuel and raw materials resources. The severity of the problems is due not so much to the limited resources, but to the impact of the nature of their use on the state of the environment.

The increase in the population of the poorest countries has begun to have an irreversible impact on the environment. In the 1990s, changes reached critical proportions. They include the incessant growth of cities, the degradation of land and water resources, intensive deforestation, and the development of the greenhouse effect. Decisive action is needed to curb population growth, fight poverty and protect nature.

Ethnic and Refugee Issues caused by disproportionate population growth in developing countries and the ability to meet their social needs. For example, the rapid growth of the population does not allow stabilizing the problem of unemployment, makes it difficult to solve the problems of education, health care, social security, and others. In other words, any socio-economic problem includes a demographic one.

Let us dwell on one more aspect of the demographic problem. There is an opinion that, along with the “population explosion” of the previous decades, the so-called "urban explosion"(mainly as a result of accelerated and disordered urbanization in developing countries).

Cities are the largest centers of consumption of all natural resources - land, energy, food. The shortage of energy, raw materials and especially high-quality water is becoming more and more painful in most of the world's major cities. Urbanization is not only the growth of the urban population and the increasing role of cities in all spheres of society, but also the process of increasing the impact on nature. Occupying 1% of the inhabited land, urbanized areas concentrate almost 50% of the world's population. Cities produce 4/5 of all products, and they are "responsible" for 4/5 of atmospheric pollution.

In Third World countries, the share of the urban population doubled between 1980 and 2000. Landlessness and lack of chances of getting a job in rural areas are pushing millions of unskilled people into the cities. Explosive urban population growth is taking place with the formation of slum areas characterized by unsanitary living conditions. This type of urbanization is called slum" or "false urbanization". This process gives rise to very serious problems: housing, sanitary and hygienic, energy, providing cities with water, transport, environmental pollution, etc.

Trends in the development of the demographic situation in the world.

For the future of the Earth, population growth trends in the 21st century are extremely important. and the possibility of population stabilization. Forecasts are published every year, and in 1990 it was assumed that in 2000 6.25 billion people would live on Earth, in 2025 - 8.5 billion, in 2100 - 11.3 billion (forecast 1988 .).

From 1990 to 2025, the population of economically developed and developing countries will be significantly redistributed.

If in 1950 the share of the population of the economically developed countries of the north, Europe, North America, the former USSR, Japan, as well as Australia and New Zealand (20 million people) was 1.2 billion people (32% of the total population), then in 2025 The population of these countries will be equal to 1.35 billion people (16% of the total population). The population is expected to decrease in Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Switzerland. The population will decrease especially sharply in the FRG (from 77 million in 1990 to 70 million in 2025).

A completely different picture will be observed in the overpopulated south (Asia, Africa, Latin America), where the population will increase from 4 billion in 1990 to 7.1 billion in 2025. The population of Africa will increase sharply: from 646 million in 1990 to 1581 million in 2025. The population of Asia will increase significantly, where 57% of the world's population will live. The population of India in 2025 will approach 1.5 billion people (in 1999 - 1 billion), the same number will live in China, and nearby, in small Japan, 126 million people will live. The birth rate in Japan is declining from year to year, which leads to an increase in the number of elderly people, a decrease in the working part of the population, as well as to the selfish inclinations of the only child in the family.

According to 1999 estimates, in 2050 the world's population will be 9 billion people, 1.2 billion will live in industrialized countries, 1.53 billion in India, 345 million in Pakistan (now 156 million), Nigeria - 244 million (now 112 million), in Japan - 105 million people (now 126 million), another 30 countries will experience a decline in population.

In 1997, Bangladesh was the country with the highest population density in the world - over 764 people per 1 km2. In 2025, the population density in this country will more than double and exceed 1,500 people per 1 km2. For comparison, here are the population density indicators of a number of other countries of the world: the Netherlands - 359, Japan - 331, Belgium - 326, Great Britain - 236, Germany - 226, China - 126, USA - 27, Russia - 10. However, it should be noted that more than half The territory of Russia is located in the permafrost zone (on average in the world - 40 people per 1 km 2).

Will continue urban growth . In recent decades, the growth rate of urban population in developing countries has exceeded the rate of natural population growth. In 2000, half of humanity lived in cities. The largest cities in the world in 1994 were Tokyo (Japan, 26.5 million), New York (USA, 16.3 million), Sao Paulo (Brazil, 16.1 million), Mexico City (Mexico, 15.5 million), Shanghai (China, 14.7 million), Bombay (India, 14.5 million), Los Angeles (USA, 12.2 million), Beijing (China, 12.0 million), Calcutta (India, 11 .5 million), Seoul (South Korea, 11.5 million).

The population density in cities is very high: in Moscow - 9 thousand people per 1 km 2, in New York - 10 thousand, in Paris - 12 thousand, in Tokyo - 14 thousand.

At the same time, in the cities of developing countries, the number of houses without clean drinking water and sanitation, as well as the number of camps and slums, is increasing.

Will happen next population aging . In 1996, the World Health Organization published a report stating that the number of people of retirement age will increase by 88% in the next 25 years, and this will lead to an imbalance in the labor force of our planet. The working-age population will have to work much harder to pay taxes to pension funds. If now two employees support one pensioner, then by 2025 one employee will have to support two pensioners. By 2025, one in ten people in the world will be over the age of 66. The elderly population of the planet will reach 800 million people (in 1998 - 390 million people).

The proportion of the population of older age groups will increase. In 1997, in economically developed countries, the number of people aged 60-65 reached 17% of the total population. By 2025, they will make up more than a quarter of the total population of developed countries, which is projected to reach 1.352 billion people. This will cause a significant increase in health and welfare costs. The proportion of people over 65 years old (retirement age abroad) will increase from 12% to 15% (about 915 million people) in 2050.

Ways to solve the demographic problem

In order to solve the demographic problem, the UN adopted the "World Population Action Plan". At the same time, progressive forces proceed from the fact that family planning programs can help improve the reproduction of the population. But demographic policy alone is not enough. It must be accompanied by an improvement in the economic and social conditions of people's lives.

The International Forum "Population in the 21st Century", held in Amsterdam in November 1989, identified a number of population targets for the end of the 20th century, including a general decline in the birth rate, a reduction in early marriage and teenage pregnancy, increased use of contraceptives, and also a wide range of other activities for the development of population control programs and activities in other areas that affect the interests of the population.

The most powerful and purposeful, albeit with great excesses, policy of birth control was carried out in China.

From 1949 to 1982, China doubled its population, giving the planet about one in five of its inhabitants. In 1995, 1211 million people lived in China. With 20% of the world's population, China has 7% of arable land, i.e. per capita in China there is 8 times less arable land than in the United States. According to Chinese scientists, the country's agriculture, even with large investments, can feed a maximum of 1.6 billion people, and the country's population will approach this milestone by 2030.

Energy resources and water supplies are not keeping pace with population growth: 236 major cities in China are already experiencing water shortages. Economic activity, with the traditional neglect of the environment, threatens to almost double the pollution of already muddy reservoirs. Soil erosion will increase by a quarter, and the area of ​​deserts will increase by 40%.

Against this background, the harshness and even cruelty of the all-China campaign to limit the birth rate, which began in 1970, is understandable. The policy of family planning is formulated in the position: "One child per family and stimulation of late marriages." This applies to every urban Han indigenous family (94% of the population). When a second child is born, the father pays a fine equal to three of his monthly salaries and may lose his job. Citizens living in rural areas are allowed to have a second child if the first child is a girl. This is due to the tradition of Confucianism, according to which only a boy is a full-fledged heir and continuer of the family. Sometimes parents would abandon or kill their first female child in order to have a chance to "correct" their mistake. The campaign to limit the birth rate, for all its costs, in purely arithmetic terms, yielded results. From 1970 to 2000, 440 million people were not born in the country. Nevertheless, in 2001 China's population reached 1,280 million.

The policy of birth control, pursued by the UN and regional governments, requires increasing the literacy of the population, especially women. Literacy contributes to birth control. Women make up 2/3 of illiterate adults in developing countries. In 1985, 51% of women and 72% of men in developing countries could read, and women with secondary education in Arab countries were 39%, in Asia as a whole - 33, and in Africa - 21, in Latin America - 55%.

According to a study conducted in Mexico in 1975, landless peasant families have an average of 4.4 children, and mothers are mostly illiterate (if a woman graduated from primary school, then the average number of children in such a family is 2.7 children).

The experience of different countries shows that if a woman's education lasts more than 7 years, i.e. if she receives a secondary education, then she has an average of 2.2 fewer children than a non-educated person. The age of marriage plays an important role in reducing the birth rate. Women without education marry much earlier. Therefore, in order to reduce the growth rate of the world's population, it is necessary to teach more than 600 million illiterate women to read, as well as to educate children who may be out of school.

Borovikova Maria

Demography- the science about regularitiespopulation reproduction. She studies numbers

migration and other reasons.

by levels fertility and mortality;

by the difference between them - the level natural increase;

as of gender structure,

Purpose of my project

Research objectives :

1. Learn history education and reasons demographic crises;

2. Assess the consequences demographic crisis

Research methods :

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Voskresensk 2012

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Introduction

Conclusion 16 Bibliography 18 Appendix 20

Introduction

Demography - the scienceabout regularitiespopulation reproduction. She learns number, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes and gives recommendations for their improvement.

The demographic situation is the state of population reproduction, which depends on socio-economic, natural conditions,migrationand other reasons.

The demographic situation, population reproduction, its condition and dynamics are assessed:

1. by birth and death rates;
2. by the difference between them - the levelnatural increase;
3. as of gender structure,which has an active influence on both the state of demographic processes.

Purpose of my project: analyze the current demographic situation in Russia based on the most recent statistical data available

Research objectives:

1. Explore history education and reasonsdemographic crises;
2. Estimate effectsdemographic crisis
3. Suggest ways out of the demographic crisis.

Research methods:

1. Statistical (population data);
2. Mathematical (determination of the birth rate in Russia);
3. Analytical (analysis of data on natural increase n), etc.

1. The history of the formation of demographic crises

The demographic crisis in Russian Federation - reproductive disorderpopulationRussiathreatening its existence. The emergence of the crisis is attributed to the early 1990s.

Demographers consider the main causes of the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation to be:

1. Decline in the birth rate.From 1965 to the present, the birth rate in Russia does not providesimple reproduction of the population

The reason for the decline in the birth rate is the change under the influence of the media of reproductive attitudes, the introduction into the minds of Russian youth of foreign models of family, reproductive and sexual behavior.

Beginning in 1988, a sharp decline in the number of births begins, against the backdrop of an increase inmortalitythere was a demographic declinemortalitymore births), but natural increase population remained until1992when for the first time the number of births was 1.58 million and deaths - 1.80 million.

The birth rate in Russia exceeds similar indicators in the EU countries (9.9 per 1000 people), Japan (7.7 per 1000 people), Canada (10.2 per 1000 people) and approximately corresponds to the level of France and Australia. The death rate still outweighs the birth rate. However, in relation to 2009, the rate of natural loss decreased - by 5.6%. In 1999, the total coefficient was equal to 1.15, and by 2009 it increased to 1.55.(see appendix fig.6).

Regional differences in fertility are partially smoothed out. If in 60syears, the total fertility rate was inMoscow 1.4, and in Dagestan- 5, then by 2009 this figure in Moscow dropped to 1.3, and in Dagestan - to 1.9. Population growth from 2002 to 2010 in Moscow is up to 11%, and in Dagestan over 15%(see appendix fig.7.)

1. Reducing life expectancy.Mortality among Russian men and women of working age is significantly higher than the European average. The average life expectancy of men is 61.4 years, the life expectancy of women is much higher - 73.9 years(see appendix fig. 8).

The rise in mortality. Mortality is especially high among Russian men, which is associated, in particular, with high level consumption of strong alcoholic beverages, a large number of accidents, murders and suicides.(see appendix fig.9).However, infant mortality in Russia is only slightly higher than the European average, at 8.1 deaths under one year per 1,000 live births (2009, dataMinistry of Health and Social Development). The main classes of causes of death in Russia in 2007:

Reference books

1. Russia's Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications
2. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, G. A. Cornia. Population crisis and rising mortality in transitional Russia. - in.: The mortality crisis in transitional economies. - Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000: p. 253-279.
3. A. G. Vishnevsky, V. M. Shkolnikov.Mortality in Russia. Main risk groups and action priorities. - M.: Carnegie Moscow Center, Scientific reports, Vol. 19, 1997

Application

Fig 1. B XX centuryRussia has experienced several demographic crises.

Fig. 2 Data on the number of births and deaths since 1950.

Birth rate Death rate Growth


Global trends

Fig.3 Map of the world byaverage number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, taking into account averages for women of all ages, data from 2011.

7-8 children 6-7 children 5-6 children 4-5 children

3-4 children 2-3 children 1-2 children 0-1 children

Fig.4 Dynamics of natural decline and migration growth of the population of Russia in 1993-2009, in thousand people

Figure 5. Population of Russia in 1950-2010

Fig.6 Total fertility rate in Russia in 1990-2009

Fig.7 Population change in different subjects of the Russian Federation.

Fig. 8 Dynamics of the general mortality rate of men in the RSFSR and the Russian Federation since 1950

Fig. 9 Dynamics of life expectancy for men and women in the Russian Federation since 1950

Rice. 10 The number of deaths from murders in Russia in 1990-2009, per 100 thousand people

Gender and age pyramid

Fig. 11 Pyramid of the population of Russia in 2011 by sex and age.

Fig. 12 Trends in increasing life expectancy in Russia.